Akhir-akhir ini sering banget saya mendengar isu tentang 'global warming',
padahal perkara 'global warming' adalah prediksi iklim yang didapat dari ekstrapolasi
data-data yang ada. Sebagaimana kita tahu, ramalan cuaca seminggu ke depan saja
sering meleset, apalagi prediksi jangka panjang seperti isu 'global warming'.
Lebih jauh lagi, isu ini sudah menjadi masalah politis, bukan sekedar masalah
ilmiah belaka. Kalau sudah masuk ke daerah politik, sudah lah, ke laut saja.
Berikut ini ringkasan cerita pemanasan global yang sebenarnya
- Bumi sudah sering mengalami pemanasan dan pendinginan global selama jutaan tahun. Perioda dingin sering disebut juga sebagai 'zaman es' (Ice Age).
- Pemanasan yang terjadi sekarang bisa dibilang normal, karena kita baru keluar dari perioda zaman es kecil (Little Ice Age).
- Data pemanasan dan pendinginan global dapat diketahui lewat rekaman temperatur di inti es di gletser. Contohnya adalah di link ini [NOAA Ice Core]. Data teks itu bisa dibuat menjadi grafik pakai software semacam Microsoft Excel atau Openoffice Calc. Contoh hasilnya di [grafik rekaman temperatur global].
- Data temperatur bumi versi lain http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm
- Temperatur bumi sudah pernah lebih panas dari yang kita alami sekarang, misalkan di zaman hangat pertengahan (Medieval Warm Period) sekitar tahun 1000 Masehi. Di zaman hangat pertengahan ini bangsa Viking sempat membuat koloni di Greenland. Sekarang koloni itu sudah musnah karena temperaturnya dingin.
- Kadar CO2 di bumi juga naik turun, namun demikian belum tentu kenaikan CO2 menyebabkan kenaikan temperatur. Bisa juga malah sebaliknya yang terjadi, kenaikan temperatur menyebabkan terjadinya kenaikan CO2. [kadar CO2 mengikuti temperatur]
- Pengaruh CO2 terhadap pemanasan global relatif kecil, dibandingkan gas rumah kaca lain seperti uap air.
- Ada kemungkinan juga bahwa perubahan di matahari menyebabkan naik turun temperatur bumi. Tahun 1645 sampai 1715 terjadi Maunder minimum, di mana bintik di matahari sangat jarang, dan temperatur bumi agak dingin. Kemudian terjadi lagi penurunan aktivitas bintik matahari Dalton minimum pada tahun 1790 sampai 1830.
- Beruang di kutub utara aman-aman saja koq, mereka hidup selama 250000 tahun, dan selama itu sudah pernah mengalami zaman es dan zaman hangat yang lebih hangat dari zaman sekarang. Mereka pun sudah pernah mengalami zaman di mana es kutub utara sama sekali hilang. [Polar bear are smart].
- Isu pemanasan global sudah jadi isu politik, bukan sekedar isu ilmiah saja. Banyak orang yang berniat mengambil keuntungan dari isu ini.
- Beberapa ilmuwan yang mencetuskan teori global warming terbukti melakukan penipuan dalam karya ilmiah. Bisa dibaca di Science Scandal of the Century.
Contoh efek samping isu pemanasan global akibat manusia (Anthropogenic Global Warming):
- Para pemilik tanah di Australia dilarang menebang tanaman apapun di tanah miliknya, termasuk tanaman liar yang mengganggu kebunnya. Alasannya karena pembersihan lahan itu akan menambah CO2 di udara. Dengan kata lain tanah sang petani tidak dapat dipakai untuk menanam apapun. [‘Carbongate’ The Great Carbon Heist]
Quote yang menarik dari situs Rovicky:
Bisnis Global Warning
Yang lebih parah lagi kalau global warming-cooling yang menurutku belum pasti akibat manusia ini dibisniskan.
Misalnya dengan salah satunya jual beli carbon emisi, seolah jual beli sesuatu yang tidak ada gunanya. Juga adanya pinjaman utang Bank Dunia atau IMF utk mengatasi penggundulan hutan dll, yang seharusnya tidak diperlukan. Semua ini bisa saja nantinya dianggap sebagai jebakan dari negara adidaya dan super power, serta negara maju yang selama ini memakai carbon seenaknya. Dan menjerat hutang ke negara miskin. |
Berikut ini ada beberapa artikel yang dapat membuka wawasan kita tentang global
warming dari berbagai pihak. Maklum, namanya sains kan memang musti banyak cek
& ricek. Jangan sampai jadi korban media massa
Comments
Pemanasan Global vs Zaman Es ?
Saya mencoba menyajikan analisis objektif antara global warming dan zaman es di artikel ini : Pemanasan Global vs Zaman Es ?
Wah, menarik tulisannya!
Wah, menarik tulisannya!
Di balik isu ini?
Ada apa ya di balik propaganda2 gencar tentang Global Warming ini? Penasaran saya..
Pemanasan global, penipuan besar dalam sejarah ?
Pendiri The Weather Channel di Amerika menyebut konsep pemanasan global sebagai "penipuan terbesar dalam sejarah" dan menuduh media global berkolusi dengan para ekstrimis lingkungan untuk membohongi publik.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/11/09/eaweat...
Bantahan dari anak-anak terhadap Al Gore
Teori pemanasan global dari Al Gore's dibantah oleh anak-anak yang membuat karya tulis ilmiah.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=62598
Global warming berhenti sementara
Beberapa peneliti menyatakan bahwa global warming akan berhenti mulai sekarang sampai dengan tahun 2015 karena perubahan alamiah pada iklim bumi.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclim...
Ini tulisan anak usia 15 tahun
http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?conten...
Global warming ? jangan panik dulu
Menanggapi isu global warming jangan panik dulu, seperti:
* Ikut fasisme
* Menjatuhkan bom atom di tanah genting Panama
* Mengirimkan partikel gelas ke bagian atas atmosfir bumi
Santai dulu atuh ..
Teori global warming belum final
http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20080408/COLUMN/360445049
The debate surrounding the causes of global climate change continues: It’s not “decided science,” despite the epithet-wielding deacons of global destruction who’d have us unbelievers fitted with ankle bracelets and placed, Galileo-like, under house arrest.
No one knows how hot it will be in 2050, but we do know that man’s capacity for self-delusion — and his propensity for grasping political power by scaring his neighbors into line — is as central to life on planet Earth as the rising sun.
Teori baru tentang kaitan antara pemanasan bumi dan hurricane
The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/tech/news/5693436.html
The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025
Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. That could mean global warming has taken a breather. Or it could mean scientists aren't quite understanding what their robots are telling them.
This is puzzling in part because here on the surface of the Earth, the years since 2003 have been some of the hottest on record. But Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.
In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans.
"There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant," Willis says. So the buildup of heat on Earth may be on a brief hiatus. "Global warming doesn't mean every year will be warmer than the last. And it may be that we are in a period of less rapid warming."
In recent years, heat has actually been flowing out of the ocean and into the air. This is a feature of the weather phenomenon known as El Nino. So it is indeed possible the air has warmed but the ocean has not. But it's also possible that something more mysterious is going on.
That becomes clear when you consider what's happening to global sea level. Sea level rises when the oceans get warm because warmer water expands. This accounts for about half of global sea level rise. So with the oceans not warming, you would expect to see less sea level rise. Instead, sea level has risen about half an inch in the past four years. That's a lot.
Willis says some of this water is apparently coming from a recent increase in the melting rate of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.
"But in fact there's a little bit of a mystery. We can't account for all of the sea level increase we've seen over the last three or four years," he says.
One possibility is that the sea has, in fact, warmed and expanded — and scientists are somehow misinterpreting the data from the diving buoys.
But if the aquatic robots are actually telling the right story, that raises a new question: Where is the extra heat all going?
Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research says it's probably going back out into space. The Earth has a number of natural thermostats, including clouds, which can either trap heat and turn up the temperature, or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet.
That can't be directly measured at the moment, however.
"Unfortunately, we don't have adequate tracking of clouds to determine exactly what role they've been playing during this period," Trenberth says.
It's also possible that some of the heat has gone even deeper into the ocean, he says. Or it's possible that scientists need to correct for some other feature of the planet they don't know about. It's an exciting time, though, with all this new data about global sea temperature, sea level and other features of climate.
"I suspect that we'll able to put this together with a little bit more perspective and further analysis," Trenberth says. "But what this does is highlight some of the issues and send people back to the drawing board."
Trenberth and Willis agree that a few mild years have no effect on the long-term trend of global warming. But they say there are still things to learn about how our planet copes with the heat.
Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming
Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming, URL: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070115/59078992.html
"ST. PETERSBURG, January 15 (RIA Novosti) - Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted through human activities, believed by scientists to trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, are an effect rather than the cause of global warming, a prominent Russian scientist said Monday."
Rare Tokyo snow strands 10,000 at Narita airport
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2006-01-22-tokyo-snow_x.htm
A rare snowfall in Tokyo left nearly 10,000 passengers stranded overnight at Narita airport after about 50 international flights were cancelled, the airport authority said Sunday.
China battles "coldest winter in 100 years"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080204/lf_nm_life/china_weather_dc
Millions remained stranded in China on Monday ahead of the biggest holiday of the year as parts of the country suffered their coldest winter in a century.
Freezing weather has killed scores of people and left travelers stranded before the Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival -- the only opportunity many people have for a holiday all year.
Musim dingin di Cina
http://www.standeyo.com/NEWS/08_Pics_of_Day/080205.pic.of.day.b.html
New Study Shows Arctic Cooling Over last 1500 years
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/148586-New-Study-Shows-Arctic-Cooling-...
"The late-twentieth century is not exceptionally warm in the new Torneträsk record: On decadal-to-century timescales, periods around AD 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were all equally warm, or warmer. The warmest summers in this new reconstruction occur in a 200-year period centred on AD 1000. A 'Medieval Warm Period' is supported by other paleoclimate evidence from northern Fennoscandia, although the new tree-ring evidence from Tornetraäsk suggests that this period was much warmer than previously recognised."
The Sun also Sets
http://ibdeditorial.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=287279412587175
Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.
To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.
And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.
Salju di selatan Jepang.
So much for the global warming
Ilmuwan Rusia menyatakan bumi dapat saja memasuki zaman es baru
A cold spell soon to replace global warming
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.
URL: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html